Saturday, June 15, 2013

Is BN beatable in GE18?

At all material times, I'm fully aware the might of Barisan Nasional (BN).

Even when their popularity was at the lowest, like the one in 1999 general election when many Malays deserted BN following the Anwar Ibrahim's saga, they remained unbeatable.

As a matter of fact, from Parti Perikatan to Barisan Nasional they have won all the13 general elections since independence.

In GE13, I reckoned Pakatan Rakyat (PR) simply can not be belittled or underestimated this time around  and I wasn't alone to have opined that PR could neutralize or counterbalance BN's mighty forces.

On a level playing field and with clean & fair election, victory could just go either side; with a simple majority to form a govt.

Many also believed GE13 was the most conducive for PR to democratically turn BN into an opposition front. In contrary, PM Datuk Najib was confident in winning with a two-third majority.

Honestly and with due respect, I took PM Najib's statement then as not more than psychological strategies to enhance motivation and manage anxiety.

When results of GE13 was announced, PR won the popular votes (51%) but lost the election. However, PR claimed to have won more seats if not for the alleged irregularities and misconduct by the Election Commission (EC) the same of which had prompted the Black505 rally.

Now, GE13 is almost history. I said so to pave way for the court process to complete the election petitions filed by both, BN & PR.
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Focus is now on the next general election, GE18. DAP has began initiatives and I think it's a wise move. PKR & PAS should also follow suit.

PR coalition should ensure their strong bond  is sustained if not enhanced, a greater understanding between all component parties  & to consistently work as a team. The only way to win the election is to win the hearts of the people first - It's 2nd to none.

Now, the Chinese electorate may have humiliated BN for not voting them, but was it a crime?
Despite DPM Muhyidin's awkward statement (greater assistance will be given to Chinese communities that have voted BN coalition), I'm doubtful BN will racially profile them out of political vengeance.

Instead, I'm convinced BN will soon make amend in an effort to regain the lost of support and more importantly lost of votes.

To continue in-discriminating or punishing the Chinese electorate will only result in adverse (negative) impact on BN itself come GE18. The question is; can they afford that?

On the other hand, PR is left with the challenge of 'preserving' the enormous Chinese support & votes until GE18. Another challenge ahead of PR is to break-up BN's dominance in Sabah & Sarawak.

It will be an up-hill task to convince Sabahan & Sarawakian voters on the need for an alternative govt. Perhaps the difference in sentiments & needs were among the factors PR fared poorly.

One 'wild' solution (way-out) is for PR to secure a massive win in the peninsula and not becoming dependent on Sabah & Sarawak. Anything from there, treat it as bonus.

Easy said than done; It's indeed a challenging goal but still, it's not impossible.

So, back to the question; Is BN beatable in GE18?

My answer is - WHY NOT?
If there is a will - there is a way.




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